Where Americans can find jobs during the rolling recessions

The US job market has been resilient through a lot of turbulence over the past few years. However, the recession-like conditions that are rolling through the American economy will affect the robust job market to a certain extent. The economic slowdown that the United States is experiencing since the beginning of 2022 is commonly referred to as a “rolling recession” today. This term perfectly describes the country's current economic situation. It indicates that while there is no full-blown recession halting the economy, some sectors will certainly feel that they are in contraction.

According to LinkedIn data, some industry sectors' weaknesses will worsen this year. Rand Ghayad, head of economics and global labor markets at LinkedIn, observes that labor markets are tighter now than the pre-pandemic levels. He believes that although the labor market has been resilient, things will start slowing down gradually and will keep slowing down over the next few months.

The housing labor market saw a sharp downturn in 2022. Manufacturing is in contraction for several months. The financial sector too will start slowing down, as indicated by the tighter credit conditions noted by the senior loan officer survey from the Federal Reserve. Economists believe that the United States will experience slow to moderate growth in 2023.

The government data is miles apart from LinkedIn’s data, which is taken from job postings and other data of the 900 million global client base of the app. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a tight labor market with almost two job openings per unemployed person, LinkedIn’s data suggests that the labor market tightness metric is 1:1.

So, what do rolling recessions mean for job seekers? It means that it will become easier to get a job in some industries while it will become increasingly tougher to get a job in others. According to LinkedIn, employers in government administration, education, and consumer services sectors are having a much easier time filling up jobs.

Tech, entertainment, information and media, professional services, retail, and financial services are moderately tight job markets where it is easier for applicants to find opportunities. Employers in these industries have to step up their recruitment efforts to attract the right talent. Accommodation, oil and gas, hospice, and healthcare are the sectors with an extremely tight market. In these sectors, employers have no way of filling up vacancies fast enough.

We will not be able to see a significant drop in hiring in certain recession-proof industries. Government, utilities, education, and consumer services are such sectors. Experts predict the possibility of a recession ahead even though the labor market is very healthy right now. The Wall Street Journal conducted research that predicts a 61% chance of a contraction.